working papers

2023

1. Complexity and Satisficing: Theory with Evidence from Chess Salant, Y., and J. Spenkuch [Abstract] [PDF]

   We develop a satisficing model of choice in which the available alternatives differ in their inherent complexity. We assume—and experimentally validate—that complexity leads to errors in the perception of alternatives’ values. The model yields sharp predictions about the effect of complexity on choice probabilities, some of which qualitatively contrast with those of maximization-based choice models. We confirm the predictions of the satisficing model—and thus reject maximization—in a novel data set with information on hundreds of millions of real-world chess moves by highly experienced players. These findings point to the importance of complexity and satisficing for decision making outside of the laboratory.

2. Pandering in the Shadows: How Natural Disasters Affect Special Interest Politics Kaplan, E., J. Spenkuch, and H. Yuan [Abstract] [PDF]

   We exploit the quasi-random timing of natural disasters to study the connection between public attention to politics and legislators’ support for special interests. We show that when a disaster strikes, the news media reduce both their coverage of politics in general as well as that of individual legislators in particular. At the same time, members of the House of Representatives become significantly more likely to adopt the positions of special-interest donors as they vote on bills. Taken together, the evidence implies that politicians are more inclined to take actions that benefit special interests when the public is distracted. More broadly, our findings suggest that attention to politics improves electoral accountability, even in an environment with stringent transparency and disclosure requirements.

2021

1. School Desegregation and Political Preferences: Long-Run Evidence from Kentucky Kaplan, E., J. Spenkuch, and C. Tuttle [Abstract] [PDF]

   In 1974, a federal court ordered that public schools in Jefferson County, KY be desegregated. To achieve racial integration, students were assigned to a busing schedule that depended on the first letter of their last name. This led to quasi-random variation in the number of years of busing and, for the initial cohorts, whether individuals were bused at all. We use this variation to estimate the long-run impact of busing on political participation and preferences. Focusing on white males, we do not detect any effect on voter turnout. We do, however, find that busing significantly increases Democratic party affiliation more than forty years later. Consistent with the idea that attending a formerly black, city school causes a change in the broad ideological outlook of whites, we also find that bused individuals are less likely to donate to organizations that advocate for conservative causes.